And just like that, the peace accord President Donald Trump helped broker between Cambodia and Thailand lies in tatters.
Long-simmering tensions turned violent over the weekend as the Southeast Asian neighbors reignited a border conflict that left nearly four dozen casualties back in July.
Thailand accused Cambodian forces of opening fire at several locations and responded with F-16 airstrikes on military sites. At least 10 people are dead, and there’s little sign of a pause as both sides traded artillery fire overnight.
For those watching this unfold, a relapse into conflict always felt likely despite the joint declaration Trump witnessed in October — one of eight disputes he claims to have resolved since returning to office, mostly by leveraging the use of US tariffs.
But the roots of this crisis run deep, and aren’t so easily fixed.
They stretch back to colonial-era maps drawn under the Franco-Siamese treaties of the early 1900s. The sovereignty of several areas remains contested, fueling intermittent clashes since 2008 and a deadly flare-up in 2011.
Even as Trump landed in Kuala Lumpur six weeks ago to showcase the deal, both governments were still trading accusations of provocation, with Thailand refusing to release 18 Cambodian prisoners of war until several conditions were met.
This time Thailand is taking a noticeably harder line, as officials signal that the political price of appearing weak on the border now outweighs the risks to their US trade deal. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul — heading into an election early next year — has vowed to press the offensive and ruled out talks unless Cambodia fully capitulates.
Militarily outmatched, Cambodia has condemned Thailand’s actions as “brutal and unlawful” and “a grave violation” of the July ceasefire.
In the end, the truce endured no longer than the fiction holding it together. — Philip Heijmans